This Article Full Text (PDF) All Versions of this Article: 0276146708314588v1 28/2/157    most recent References Alert me when this article is cited Alert me if a correction is posted Services Email this article to a friend Similar articles in this journal Alert me to new issues of the journal Add to Saved Citations Download to citation manager Request Permissions Request Reprints Add to My Marked Citations Google Scholar Articles by Schnaars, S. Articles by Irmak, C. Social Bookmarking                   What's this?

Predicting the Emergence of Innovations from Technological Convergence: Lessons from the Twentieth Century

Baruch College in New York City

Gloria Thomas

Zicklin School of Business at Baruch College

Caglar Irmak

This article takes a historical perspective to examine technological convergences that occurred throughout the twentieth century in an attempt to gain insights that may be helpful today. It analyzes five case histories where experts predicted that two or more existing technologies would converge to create an entirely new product and market. The cases are studied for their unique points of difference as well as for their commonalities. They lead to the conclusion that despite the confidence and enthusiasm in the forecasts, the convergences typically took decades longer than expected and often materialized in forms that bore little resemblance to the original predictions. Failures occurred for a variety of reasons, ranging from a lack of market acceptance to a waning of one of the original technologies prior to the convergence. The results have implications for businesses and consumers concerned with current predictions of new technological convergences.

Key Words: technological convergence • technological forecasting • new products • innovation • history

CiteULike    Connotea    Del.icio.us    Digg    Reddit    Technorati    What's this?